A Little Climate Update
Look, I don't like talking about it anymore than you like hearing about it, but it's important we stay informed
Hiya!
The United States recently released the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) in preparation for COP28 — The United Nations annual climate change conference, also known as the Conference of the Parties (COP).
And, despite how much we’d rather close our eyes, plug our ears, and go “LA-LA-LA-LA-LA,” now is the time for us to take a deep breath and check in on the status of Global Warming. Not just to consider what the future might hold but also because, in case you haven’t noticed, the United States is already being ravaged.
America’s Getting Hit Hard
The 32-chapter NCA5 report was compiled by over 750 experts across the U.S. federal government and focuses on the impacts of global warming in the U.S. The report is extensive, and I don’t have the space to include everything it says, but I’ll tell you some highlights, starting with this quote:
“The US is warming faster than the global average, reflecting a broader global pattern: land areas are warming faster than the ocean, and higher latitudes are warming faster than lower latitudes.”
While some areas are getting hit harder than others, climate crises impact every region of the U.S., ranging from prolonged droughts in the southwest to increased rainfall and flooding in the northeast with warming temperatures from coast to coast. According to NCA5, temperatures at night and during the winter are rising faster than temperatures during the day and summer.
Increased temperatures affect the planet’s water cycles by warming groundwater and decreasing mountain snow cover. Droughts increase flood risks, and ocean water seeping inland degrades water supplies, kills plant life, and increases water scarcity.
Beyond more heat and less water, worsening air quality due to wildfire smoke, smog, increased pollen, and dust affects people’s respiratory health. All of which impact our everyday lives and recreational activities.
Speaking of which, if you enjoy fishing, swimming in the ocean, or lying on a beach, you should do it now while you can. The report states that warming temperatures increase the numbers of invasive species and dangerous algal blooms, which are already beginning to shut down beach access and fishing.
On the bright side, the U.S. has decreased greenhouse gas emissions by 12 percent since 2005, and the costs associated with social and wind energy have fallen dramatically — 90 percent for solar and 70 percent for wind. That said, we need to cut way, way more emissions than 12 percent over almost twenty years.
The report states that “severe climate risks to the United States will continue to grow” without significant cuts in our carbon pollution. And even if by some miracle we do achieve such cuts, it’ll be a bit before we see the results. The report cautions:
“Even if greenhouse gas emissions fall substantially, the impacts of climate change will continue to intensify over the next decade.”
And it ain’t cheap.
Costing Big Bucks
Beyond the exhaustive distillation of climate science in the NCA5, the report also evaluates the financial and economic costs. To put it plainly, global warming is expensive — and it’s only getting more so.
Let me put it this way: In 1980, climate-related disasters costing at least a billion dollars happened about once every four months on average. Today, billion-dollar climate disasters are occurring once every three weeks on average.
The damage caused by extreme weather events already costs at least $150 billion a year — and the report notes that is a conservative estimate — one that is projected to grow. In fact, the White House reported that “the cost of climate and weather disasters in the United States [in 2022] was more than $165 billion — the third most costly year on record.”
The image above is from the NCA5 report showing the damage from billion-dollar disasters by state. The report clarifies that “Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters are events where damages/costs reach or exceed $1 billion, including adjustments for inflation.”
In the four years between 2018 and 2022, the U.S. experienced billion-dollar climate events a total of 89 times. More precisely, there were four winter storms, four droughts, five wildfires, six floods, 18 tropical cyclones, and 52 severe storms, all costing a billion dollars or more.
Texas had the costliest climate damage due to global warming during the given timeframe at a whopping total of $375 billion. Meanwhile, the $113 billion price tag for cleaning up Hurricane Ian’s destruction in Florida was the most expensive damage caused by a single event.
As a reminder, these are current numbers. The costs will undoubtedly increase as emission rates continue rising. Higher emissions guarantee more intense and frequent climate events and increases “the risk of two or more extreme events coinciding or in quick succession in the same region,” according to the report.
Climate scientists call this nightmare scenario “compound events.” Simultaneous climate disasters sound like the makings of the next apocalypse movie, but the stakes are real, and the reality of such events is more complicated than you might realize — and I don’t just mean financially. For instance, compound events typically result in a domino effect, which causes far more harm than the events themselves.
In the Future
To put it bluntly, beyond economic costs, climate-related events threaten our water and food supplies — the two things vital to our survival.
Droughts, flooding, and rising sea levels threaten our water supplies both in volume and reliability, making water availability unpredictable from one year to the next. Heavier rains and more frequent storms also damage property, jeopardize crops, and contaminate water supplies.
Warming ocean temperatures increase deoxygenation and acidification while bringing invasive aquatic species and toxic algal blooms — all of which put the entire fishery industry at risk. We’ve already begun seeing the effects, like the 10 billion missing snow crabs this year.
The NCA5 warns that we should expect more disruption to food systems as the years progress. They state:
As the climate changes, increased instabilities in US and global food production and distribution systems are projected to make food less available and more expensive.
Unfortunately, this is just a sample. There are more risks listed in the report. Of course, they do offer some solutions, too. They say, “Available mitigation strategies can deliver substantial emissions reductions,” but caution that “additional options are needed to reach net zero.”
Beyond available strategies, the NCA5 report warns that most of the States’ climate actions have been “incremental” and “small in scale” so far. If we want to make an actual difference, a “more transformative adaptation will be necessary” to lower current and future climate risks.
Perspective Shift
I‘m glad we’re finally beginning to shift toward creating a society less dependent on fossil fuels and are investing in green energy and climate resiliency, but we need to do a whole lot more, a whole lot faster. It’s time we get comfortable with the uncomfortable.
And we can do it. We all know we can. The Pandemic showed us we are capable of creating massive change very quickly. I’m not saying it will be easy or fun, but it will be necessary. We are a brilliant and imaginative species capable of achieving anything we put our minds to. So rather than view the changes we need to make as ripping apart our comfortable lives, we can see it as one of the biggest obstacles our species has ever faced. One we can overcome by working together.
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But first we have to successfully get past the 2024 election and the “Drill, frack, and burn coal” candidate.